Why Western Governments Continue Soft Dealings with an Iran on the Brink of Defeat

Over the past eight years, Iranian people have staged four separate uprisings against the theocratic dictatorship that has ruled their country since 1979. Each incident met with ever more brutal repression than the one preceding it, and in January of this year, thousands of protesters were killed across Iran in mass shootings spearheaded by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Despite this, public activism and explicit calls for regime change persist within the Islamic Republic. Since the January uprising, a network of “Resistance Units” has conducted hundreds of operations challenging the IRGC and demonstrating readiness to implement Maryam Rajavi’s ten-point plan.

Last Saturday, Mrs. Rajavi delivered her keynote address at a global summit hosted by the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) outside Paris. In it, she described the regime as having reached its “last stop” with the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as its new supreme leader following his father’s death during U.S. military operations targeting nuclear ambitions.

After confirmation of Ali Khamenei’s death on February 28, the NCRI announced the formation of a provisional government to implement Rajavi’s plan and oversee Iran’s first free and fair elections. Since then, Resistance Units have consolidated their efforts to build a “National Liberation Army” prepared to defend this anticipated democratic regime.

This trajectory underscores the clear viability of the Resistance movement—a reality recognized by diverse Western policymakers who have formally endorsed the NCRI, Rajavi’s ten-point plan, and her leadership. Yet these developments remain overlooked by major Western governments, which persist in soft dealings and negotiations with a criminal regime teetering on collapse.

On the same day as the summit, approximately 50,000 Iranian expatriates—arriving via over 800 buses from across Europe—held impromptu demonstrations in Paris after French authorities blocked plans for an NCRI-led rally at Place Vauban. The injunction cited vague threats of violence by regime supporters and monarchists linked to Reza Pahlavi, son of Iran’s last shah. However, the primary reason was Western appeasement of a regime that repeatedly exploits tolerance of Iranian activism.

Speaking at the summit, former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson stated: “We know why we’ve been prevented from having a proper rally two months in preparation by Madame Rajavi and others—that was because the French Foreign Ministry got on the blower to Mr. Araghchi in Tehran and decided it would be more politic not to allow the Iranian opposition to assemble.”

It is no longer the first time Western democracies have appeased Iran’s regime. As internal developments accelerate, Western reluctance grows increasingly incredulous and impatient. The latest French efforts to silence Iranian activists reflect either ignorance or misunderstanding of these trends, threatening progress that would benefit global security and human rights alike.

At the summit, former European Council President Charles Michel noted: “The regime has repeatedly exploited appeasement to buy time—but Western acquiescence only prolongs suffering.” He urged international recognition of the Resistance movement’s viability and policy shifts accordingly. Pointing to ongoing demonstrations despite French disruptions, he questioned: “What political organization anywhere in Europe can mobilize tens of thousands for democracy, freedom, and hope?”

The events in Paris mirror eight years of struggle within Iran—a vivid reminder of grassroots efforts building toward regime change that would save lives, stabilize the Middle East, and advance democratic interests globally. While French actions constitute a shameful example of Western complacency, they need not define the policies of France, the European Union, or the international community.

Ivan Sascha Sheehan is the interim dean of the College of Public Affairs at the University of Baltimore, where he teaches public and international affairs. The views expressed are his own. Follow him on X @ProfSheehan.