Trump’s Venezuela Strategy: Rubio’s High Stakes Gamble

By Jim Morley | Saturday, 22 November 2025 05:10 PM EST

Secretary of State Marco Rubio is staking much of his political future on the Trump administration’s efforts to unseat Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, according to a report. Rubio, serving as both secretary of state and national security adviser, is central to the U.S. strategy on Venezuela, which includes maintaining a significant military presence in the Caribbean and launching airstrikes on suspected drug-trafficking vessels.

While the official justification for the operation is combating drug cartels, sources said the campaign ultimately aims to help remove Maduro from power. If Maduro remains in control, Rubio risks losing support from Latin American exiles, particularly in Florida. But if Maduro falls and the administration’s actions worsen Venezuela’s political or economic instability, Rubio’s standing with those voters could also be damaged.

Rubio, widely viewed as a potential 2028 presidential contender, also risks alienating parts of Trump’s base who oppose almost all military intervention abroad. A Republican strategist who served at the State Department during Trump’s first term said the MAGA base has “no political appetite or political will for a regime change in Venezuela.”

“As we saw with the Iran strikes, kicking ass is in the GOP’s DNA. People came around to that. But there’s still a large hesitancy about greater engagement with unclear motives,” the strategist said. Sen. Rick Scott, a fellow Florida Republican, argued that Rubio is simply maintaining his long-standing opposition to Latin American authoritarianism.

“People are appreciative that Marco’s working hard to get freedom and liberty in Latin America,” Scott said. “He’s doing exactly what he’s always been doing.”

If Maduro is removed, through force or negotiation, it could bolster Rubio’s reputation among Hispanic voters in Florida, a crucial bloc in GOP primary contests. But if the military pressure fails to oust the Venezuelan leader, Rubio risks a significant setback. A Florida International University professor who polls the state’s Hispanic voters said Rubio faces challenges even in the event of Maduro’s departure.

“If Maduro leaves, however it goes, it’ll be good for Marco,” Eduardo Gamarra said. “What happens after is another question.”

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