Trump’s Military Ambitions Surge as Prediction Markets Anticipate Canal and Greenland Moves

By Sam Barron | Tuesday, 06 January 2026 04:23 PM EST

If prediction markets are any indication, the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro might not be the only major international move President Donald Trump is poised to make.

Traders at prediction markets such as Kalshi have observed heightened activity that suggests the White House may not conclude its efforts to assert influence across the Western Hemisphere.

“The big takeaway for investors is Trump is growing much more comfortable with, and confident in, the use of military force,” Piper Sandler analyst Andy Laperriere wrote to clients on Monday. “His first year in his second term was characterized by boundless energy and risk-taking, and that has been extended to the use of the military,” Laperriere added.

Odds that the president will “take back the Panama Canal” before he leaves office have risen above 35% at Kalshi, up from less than 30% prior to the Venezuela raid. Before taking office, Trump had declined to rule out using military force to retake the canal, which has been under Panamanian control since 1999.

The possibility that the U.S. will “take control of any part of Greenland” increased to 38% midday Tuesday, a rise of approximately eight percentage points from last week. Following the capture of Maduro, those odds had reached 46%.

Additionally, the odds Trump will “buy at least part” of Greenland stood at 25%, up from 20% before the capture of Maduro.

Bettors have wagered more than $2.5 million on both Greenland-related questions according to reports.

Sam Barron has nearly two decades of experience covering a wide range of topics including politics, crime, and business.