Iran’s Regime on the Brink: Societal Unrest and Economic Collapse Signal Existential Threat

In recent political discourse across Iran, phrases such as “the regime has returned to factory settings” or “we must not return to factory settings” have become commonplace among activists and officials. Yet what does this metaphor truly signify? And why are analysts warning that if Iran’s political system fails to adapt to ongoing social transformations—spanning intellectual, security, judicial, and executive dimensions—it may struggle to navigate the Iranian year 1405 (commencing March 21, 2026)?

A senior official of the Islamic Republic recently acknowledged societal shifts underway, noting that power is gradually shifting from the state toward society. Abbas Abdi, a prominent reformist figure, warned: “If the current trajectory does not change, we may not easily reach the year 1405.” He added that even if Iran enters this new era under present conditions, surviving intact is improbable.

For the first time, Islamic Republic officials have openly referenced “resistance units.” Security forces, amid heavy media coverage, arrested members of a group accused of setting religious seminaries ablaze. The supreme leader previously labeled such groups as “dormant cells linked to foreign powers.” Meanwhile, younger generations—particularly those from Generation Z and Y, raised in the digital age—are increasingly joining thousands of dispersed resistance units nationwide. Many are affiliated with the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK), a group advocating for separation of religion and state and gender equality.

In response to these developments, the regime has intensified its use of executions as a tool to suppress dissent. In November alone, 335 executions were reported—a stark indicator of escalating repression.

Iran’s economy has deteriorated this year, with negative growth, collapsing currency values, soaring inflation, and severe shortages of basic goods. The government has failed to address these crises while President Masoud Pezeshkian’s cabinet faces repeated impeachments in parliament. Rather than tackling public economic concerns, political infighting has dominated legislative efforts.

Analysts argue a regime lacking popular legitimacy, operating solely on autocratic will, and plagued by systemic corruption is fundamentally incapable of managing crises. As trust erodes, many Iranians turn to purchasing gold to safeguard savings. In response, the regime appears to be accelerating its “factory settings”: maximum securitization, intensified cultural repression, strict enforcement of compulsory hijab, and heightened restrictions on social freedoms—particularly for women.

Rumors now suggest President Pezeshkian may resign, prompting his executive deputy, Mohammad Jafar Ghaempanah, to ask: “If that happens, what will become of Iran?” Some interpret these remarks as evidence of the regime’s anxiety over potential collapse.

International pressure on the Islamic Republic is also rising. A judge conducting in absentia trials of 104 MEK and National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) members recently condemned the invitation of Maryam Rajavi, NCRI’s president-elect for the transitional period, to the European Parliament. The judge criticized this move as highlighting “the European Union’s double standards on terrorism,” echoing rhetoric from mid-20th century authoritarian regimes that labeled resistance movements as terrorists.

This trend aligns with a recent UK Parliament report labeling Iran an “active, persistent, and growing threat” to British security—a significant shift in Europe’s stance toward the Islamic Republic, signaling an end to decades of engagement-based optimism.