China’s Hidden Target: Why Russia, Not Taiwan, Is the Real Objective

China has been significantly increasing military expenditures and capabilities. American observers suggest that Beijing aims to attack Taiwan.

However, as I noted in a recent column, Chinese leaders would have no reason to pursue such an action. They could incorporate Taiwan without the costs and risks of war.

Like a small moon orbiting a large planet, Taiwan will gradually become increasingly difficult to resist being drawn closer to China’s rapidly expanding economy.

China is unlikely to become democratic. Yet, if its leadership focused on enhancing citizen prosperity and personal security within a legal framework, Taiwan could easily fall into Chinese influence.

There are already Taiwanese leaders who advocate for improved relations with China.

If China were to attack Taiwan, the United States might intervene. However, there’s no guarantee that China would emerge victorious. And even if they did, Taiwan’s economy would be devastated and its population would become impoverished and resentful.

This raises a question: why is China investing so heavily in military capabilities? Is it purely defensive?

If not solely defensive, who is China actually targeting?

One clear possibility is Russia.

Russian Siberia, located north of China, is sparsely populated but rich in natural resources. As global warming progresses, this currently polar region will become more suitable for agricultural and economic activities.

Russia’s population is much smaller than China’s, and the rate of deaths now exceeds births. Consequently, as Russia’s population declines, so too does its capacity to defend against a Chinese invasion.

Moreover, it is improbable that the United States would assist Russia. We might even be inclined to support China or at least allow their actions with minimal intervention.

Encouraging deterioration in Russian-Chinese relations has historical precedent.

President Richard Nixon and his foreign policy advisor Henry Kissinger pursued normalization with China to counterbalance the Soviet Union, which later collapsed under Mikhail Gorbachev’s reforms.

Russia, lacking natural borders, has historically been wary of external threats. Vladimir Putin may therefore be aware of potential dangers from China. Integrating Ukraine into Russia could provide additional military manpower to deter or defend against a Chinese invasion.

Putin has taken several steps to maintain good relations with China, partly due to the need for buyers of Russian oil and gas amid Western sanctions over the Ukraine conflict.

While China has been helpful in this context, Putin cannot rely on continued favorable ties.

Putin should recall Joseph Stalin’s mistaken belief that Adolf Hitler would not attack the Soviet Union. This miscalculation led to Germany invading the USSR.

If you were a Chinese leader planning an attack on Russia, would you publicly declare your target? Or would you pretend to aim at another country to achieve surprise?

I hope China avoids attacking anyone and agrees to reduce military spending if other major powers do likewise.

Current technology could enable comfortable lives for all nations if resources spent on destructive capabilities were redirected into positive investments.

The world’s people must recognize that we are all in one boat and act accordingly. We live in a single world, regardless of our preferences.

By Paul F. deLespinasse
Wednesday, 17 December 2025 11:54 AM EST