Trump’s Strategy in Government Shutdown Negotiations

U.S. President Donald Trump signed legislation to reopen the government on November 12, 2025, with Rep. Steve Scalise, R-La., U.S. House Speaker Rep. Mike Johnson, R-La., and Republican lawmakers. The bill funds the federal government until the end of January 2026. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)
By Dick Morris
Thursday, November 13, 2025, 8:15 AM EST
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The narrative surrounding the government shutdown that ended with Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., allowing it to occur is complex. The Democratic claim that the party leadership was heartbroken by the pain the missed paychecks were inflicting on federal workers is dismissed as absurd. The real reason Schumer caved in was because Trump outsmarted and out maneuvered him when he threatened to send the money to hold down Obamacare premiums directly to the insured and not to their companies.

The support of Obamacare by the insurance industry had been purchased by the more than generous profits they’ve earned under the program. Now, with those profits turned off by the shutdown, the Democrats doubled down by shutting down the entire government to reopen the spigot and restart the insurance premium subsidy gravy train. Trump called their bluff by agreeing to the subsidy but insisting that the payee on the checks be the individual families on Obamacare.

By proposing to shut out the insurance companies and send the subsidy directly to the Obamacare beneficiaries, Trump exposed the self-interest behind the Democratic defense of the subsidy. They wanted their usual cut of campaign contributions from the insurance companies and knew they’d be shut out if the bailout went directly to the consumers themselves. The message to Chuck Schumer was plain enough. Now Trump has teed up another subsidy vote later this fall and expects him to insist that the subsidy go directly to the insured themselves and not to the well-heeled companies.

Dick Morris is a political strategist and author who has advised several U.S. presidents, governors, and mayors over a 40-year career. Read Dick Morris’ Reports — here.
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