Polling Mistakes and Political Muddling in Recent Elections

By Sandy Fitzgerald | Wednesday, 05 November 2025 10:50 AM EST
Longtime GOP strategist and pollster Dustin Olson criticized pollsters for underestimating former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s influence in New York City while overestimating the strength of Republican candidates in several key races during an appearance on “Wake Up America.” Olson, who also hosts the “Political Trade Secrets” podcast, noted that election results in New York, New Jersey, and Virginia reflected a reliance on outdated models. He stated, “A lot of pollsters were doing 2021 models when it was more like a 2017 election.”

Olson highlighted issues with public polling, arguing that many survey firms prioritize online panels, where respondents are paid to participate, over traditional voter outreach methods. He referred to this as “panel trash,” suggesting such approaches skewed results. He also criticized political campaigns for releasing their own polls to shape public perception, stating, “Every camp is trying to get their poll out.”

In New Jersey, Olson described the election outcomes as unsurprising given the state’s historical Democratic leanings but noted that Democrats secured larger-than-expected margins. Regarding California’s Proposition 50, which allows redistricting changes, he warned of escalating partisan conflicts, calling it a “warfare” tactic. He added that many Californians supported the measure, believing it protected democracy, despite its impact on an independent redistricting commission.