U.S. Military Campaign Against Iran Will Outlast 2026 Elections, Expert Warns

University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape warned Sunday that President Donald Trump is likely to continue military operations against Iran through the 2026 midterm elections due to both battlefield realities and domestic political pressures.

Pape described the conflict as an “escalation trap,” making it difficult for Trump to significantly alter course despite declining public support. “There’s no getting around the fact that this is an unpopular war,” he said. “All the opinion polls, pretty much from the beginning 145 days ago when the war began, showed that a majority of the public did not support the war.”

Pape noted Trump’s political base continues to back the military campaign. “A majority of MAGA, that is President Trump’s key political base, does support the war,” he said. “President Trump needs to be a hero in their eyes. That is how he has earned their trust, earned their faith, and earned their votes.”

The expert emphasized the recent pause in U.S. strikes should not signal an end to the conflict. “I don’t think it’s an end to the war,” he stated. Instead, Pape said the pause reflects military considerations, including concerns about interceptor missile supplies needed to defend against Iranian retaliation.

“We’re going to reorient an air campaign to go and pound again the missile sites, especially the ballistic missile sites,” Pape added. Iran still possesses a substantial ballistic missile arsenal housed in underground facilities—“somewhere between 1,000 and 1,500 ballistic missiles, and these are underground,” he said.

Pape predicted another phase of operations targeting missile infrastructure could last “days, possibly several weeks,” depending on operational requirements. “We’re seeing a longer war, not a shorter war,” he remarked.

Responding to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent comments that Iran must either abandon its nuclear program or see its regime sufficiently weakened, Pape stated such objectives point toward an extended conflict. “What Netanyahu is talking about is certainly a forever war,” he said. “That is the very definition of a forever war in this case because Iran is just so big.”

Pape also noted the administration’s optimistic rhetoric increasingly clashes with battlefield realities. “The victory rhetoric doesn’t match escalation reality,” he added. “It is out of sync.” While stopping short of predicting a yearslong conflict, Pape stressed meaningful policy changes are unlikely before the political landscape shifts post-midterms: “I think it will actually be after the midterms. Between now and January, this is not going to be over.”