Paxton Edges Talarico in Texas Senate Race as Republican Support Soars

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, has gained a narrow lead over state Representative James Talarico in two recent surveys released this week. The polls indicate that Republican voters are increasingly consolidating behind Paxton following a contentious primary contest that ended four-term Senator John Cornyn’s Senate career.

The University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll showed Paxton at 43% and Talarico at 42%, with Libertarian Ted Brown holding 3% and 10% undecided. A separate survey by SoCal Strategies placed Paxton ahead 49% to 47%, with 4% undecided.

This shift represents a significant change from the same pollster’s April results, when Talarico led Paxton 42% to 34%. Paxton’s 9-point gain in support aligns with a substantial rise within his party: Republican backing for him increased from 63% in April to 84% in June, while Talarico’s share among Republicans dropped to 5%.

Talarico has focused his general-election campaign on drawing independent and conservative voters away from traditional Republicans. He continues to lead independents at a 40% to 12% margin, though one-third of that group remains undecided.

The SoCal Strategies survey also reveals voter realignment dynamics. Talarico carried independents by 10 points and captured 25% of voters who supported Cornyn in the May runoff. However, Republicans had a slightly higher undecided share than Democrats (4% to 1%), providing Paxton with additional room to consolidate support.

In the gubernatorial race, Texas Governor Greg Abbott led state Representative Gina Hinojosa by 54% to 42%, a margin wider than the University of Texas poll’s 47% to 40%.

Paxton secured victory in the May 26 runoff after President Donald Trump endorsed him over Cornyn. Trump has described Talarico as “the worst Texas candidate he has ever seen.”

The Cook Political Report rates the Senate seat Lean Republican.

Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, but Republicans express concern that Paxton’s record—including a 2023 impeachment by the Texas House that ended in acquittal by the state Senate—could result in a tighter race than previous cycles.

By Alex Chen | This Week