U.S. Strategy for Iran Risks Unintended Consequences, Diplomat Warns

By Nicole Weatherholtz | Saturday, 28 February 2026 05:02 PM EST

Following the U.S.-Israel joint attack on Iran on Saturday, Ambassador John Limbert cautioned that the Trump administration may be underestimating Iran’s staying power.

Appearing on special coverage of the attack, the retired U.S. diplomat and longtime Iran scholar said aspirations of toppling Tehran’s rulers ignore a basic fact: the Islamic Republic has proven hard to kill.

“I’m not among his greatest fans,” Limbert said, referring to Iran’s supreme leader, adding, “nor am I a great fan of the Islamic Republic.”

Still, he argued, Washington must reckon with what the regime has endured. “The Islamic Republic has been in power for 47 years and it’s survived a lot,” Limbert said. “For better or worse, it’s very resilient.”

Ticking through the record, Limbert noted it “survived … assassinations, the loss of leaders,” and it “survived war, survived sanctions” — even “survived its own incompetence.” That history, he suggested, makes regime-change optimism risky, especially if the strategy centers on decapitation strikes.

“This kind of operation — blowing things up and removing top leaders — is … unlikely to bring a better government for most Iranians,” Limbert said.

He also questioned what Washington’s endgame is after Saturday’s attacks. “It’s a question of what the goals are,” Limbert said, contrasting regime change with efforts to block a nuclear weapon.

He noted that talks aimed at limiting Iran’s nuclear ambitions had been viewed as “positive” by multiple observers, including Oman’s foreign minister, before attention shifted toward overthrow. “Obviously, someone, somewhere … has convinced President Trump that it’s time to topple the Islamic Republic,” Limbert said. “All I think is that it’s not going to be as easy as they think.”

He warned that calls for uprising could cost ordinary Iranians dearly if the U.S. does not commit to deploying boots on the ground. “Is [Trump] inviting Iranians, unarmed Iranians, to go out on the street and be slaughtered by the goons of this current regime?” Limbert asked. “Because that’s what it looks like if he’s not going to put troops on the ground.”

He invoked past U.S. episodes to underscore the danger of encouraging revolt without protection, pointing to Iraq and the aftermath of 1991, when he said Shia communities in the south were “slaughtered.” Even if senior figures are removed, he added, the system can regenerate. Iran “has survived the loss of top people before,” Limbert said, and it retains “supporters with nothing to lose … who will fight to keep the privileges that they have.”