Texas Senate Primary: GOP’s Intra-Party Battle Threatens to Flip Historic Republican Seat

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., warned this week that a bitter intraparty fight could put the GOP’s hold on a vital Senate seat in Texas at risk of being won by Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections.

Thune said during an interview ahead of the state’s primaries that the contest between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas; Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton; and Rep. Wesley Hunt, R-Texas, carries national implications as Republicans fight to maintain control of the Senate.

“Honestly, if you look at the polling in a general election setting, I don’t think it’s outside the realm of possibility that the seat flips, depending on who the Democrats nominate,” Thune said.

Cornyn, seeking a fifth term, faces one of the most expensive and closely watched Senate primaries in the country, with the contest’s ad spending setting records. Groups on all sides have poured tens of millions into television and digital advertising, reflecting high stakes and rising tension within the party.

National Republican leaders have sounded alarms about the intraparty fight. A memo from the National Republican Senatorial Committee asserts that “John Cornyn is the only Republican candidate who reliably wins a general election matchup” and warns that “Paxton puts this seat at risk.”

Cornyn has received substantial support from GOP leadership as they seek to fend off Paxton’s insurgent challenge. Republican operatives privately acknowledge that Paxton’s momentum with the party’s conservative base nearly guarantees a May 26 runoff if no candidate clears the majority threshold on March 3.

Recent polling shows Paxton with a narrow lead, while Cornyn and third candidate U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt, R-Texas, trail closely in a three-way split among GOP voters. Many analysts say the presence of Hunt virtually ensures a runoff between Cornyn and Paxton.

Cornyn’s allies have grown increasingly aggressive recently, launching attack ads criticizing Paxton’s record and personal controversies. The ads, run by Cornyn’s campaign committee and supportive outside groups, portray Paxton as unfit for higher office—a reflection of deep concerns among establishment Republicans that his nomination could make the general election more competitive.

Paxton, a figure long favored by the hard-right wing of the party, has dismissed worries about the seat’s vulnerability, telling supporters he is prepared for a tough November fight. He has repeatedly rejected the notion that Republican strength in Texas is at risk, despite multiple internal and public polling surveys showing a tighter general election margin should he become the nominee.

Republicans have controlled the Texas Senate seat for decades, with no Democrat winning such a race since 1988. But both national and state GOP strategists acknowledge that internal fractures and the absence of a unified nominee could give Democrats a rare shot at a general election upset.

The primary runs through Friday, with Election Day set for Tuesday. Texas Democratic contenders for the Senate nomination include State Rep. James Talarico and U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Texas, who are vying to face the eventual Republican nominee in what could be one of November’s most closely watched Senate contests.