Democrats Outperforming Republicans in Special Elections Despite Trump’s 2024 Victories

Republicans are increasingly alarmed by a pattern of Democratic outperformance in special elections and down-ballot contests, even in districts where Donald Trump won comfortably in 2024.

Recent data reveals Democrats have exceeded Kamala Harris’ 2024 benchmarks by an average margin of 10.5 percentage points across 20 state legislative races held this year. In a broader analysis of state-level contests from last year, Democratic candidates outperformed Harris by a larger average gap of 13.9 points in 67 state House and Senate races.

Internal GOP polling aligns with public surveys indicating declining support for Republican candidates in key regions. Many Republicans trace this trend to Donald Trump’s absence on the ballot for both this year’s midterms and the next election cycle. Additionally, concerns about the administration’s handling of issues like additional Jeffrey Epstein file releases have reportedly alienated segments of Trump’s base while energizing Democrats and anti-GOP independents.

Polling also shows growing dissatisfaction with Trump’s immigration policies and economic conditions. Specific results underscore the trend: On January 31, Democrat Taylor Rehmet flipped a North Texas state Senate seat by 14 points—Trump had won that district by 17 points in 2024. Similarly, on February 7, Chasity Verret Martinez secured a South Louisiana state House district by a 24-point landslide, though Trump carried the same race by 13 points in 2024.

Even in races Republicans won, margins have narrowed sharply. For instance, a Republican candidate captured a north-central Oklahoma state House seat on February 10 by 28 points, while Trump had carried the district by 58 points in 2024. A GOP operative described this pattern as “a current 10-point Democratic over-performance from Trump 2024—built on a fired-up Democratic base and a sleepy GOP base.”

While some Republicans caution that low-turnout special elections may not predict national midterm outcomes, veteran pollster Patrick Allocco warned in January that Democrats’ heightened motivation could drive significant turnout.