Texas Special Election Results Show Republicans’ Strategic Failures

By Daniel McCarthy
Tuesday, 03 February 2026 06:46 AM EST

Just how badly did Republicans perform in two Texas special elections last weekend?

Not as poorly as apocalyptic headlines in liberal-leaning outlets would suggest—yet badly enough that Republicans nationwide must confront searing lessons.

Although the GOP lost both races, one contest secured a U.S. House seat that had been under Democratic control for decades. Christian Menefee’s victory narrowed the GOP’s congressional majority, but only because that reliably blue district had remained vacant since Rep. Sylvester Turner died last March.

The other election produced an upset: a Texas state Senate seat that will return to the ballot before the legislature convenes. The victorious Democrat, Taylor Rehmet, won’t get to vote on anything before Texans have another chance to evaluate him—and November’s pivotal race is certain to see stronger turnout than last Saturday’s special election.

The challenge? Rehmet didn’t just win; he secured victory by more than 14 points in a red-leaning Ft. Worth-area district. Democrats and much of the media framed this as a staggering shift: Donald Trump won that same district by roughly 17 points in 2024, implying swing away from Republicans exceeded 30 points—a humiliation signaling potential Republican collapse in November.

Yet comparing presidential elections to state Senate contests—especially January special elections—is absurd. Even when measured against typical off-year state legislative races, Saturday’s turnout was pitiful: just 94,000 voters compared to nearly 278,000 ballots cast during the last general election in 2022.

The opposition’s historical advantage in midterms applies even more intensely here: the party opposing the White House historically mobilizes more strongly, and winter storms often dampen turnout after January. Compounding this, Rehmet’s victory doesn’t grant him legislative power until November—and the scenario for maximizing protest votes while minimizing Republican turnout was perfect.

Further complicating GOP efforts was internal division. In last fall’s primary runoff, two Republicans competed against each other as well as Rehmet, allowing him to defeat both candidates—a rift that hadn’t healed by the time of Saturday’s contest.

This performance reflects abysmal—not prophetic—Republican strategy. The party can expect better results in November but will need urgent action to avoid disaster. Crucially, Republicans should not swallow Democrats’ narrative blaming GOP woes on Trump and his agenda.

In fact, Democrats won Texas by borrowing from Trump’s playbook: Rehmet ran as a populist, emphasizing his background as a machinist, union leader, and veteran. Trump rose to the presidency by mastering blue-collar voters who admire him but distrust traditional Republican branding.

When Trump appears on ballots, his brand energizes his party’s down-ticket, yet in midterms Republicans face dual challenges: anti-Trump voters punish their party while pro-Trump voters—who lack strong GOP connections—remain disengaged.

To overcome this, Republicans must adopt Trump’s strategy of making his working-class appeal central to their own campaign—without relying on his name. They also must maintain unity despite tensions between free-market conservatives wary of populism and religious groups prioritizing social issues over economic messaging.

Texas’ 9th Senate District—a region where GOP formulas historically succeeded—now presents the greatest risk for complacency. Here, Republicans ignore working-class voters who could become Democratic targets. The party isn’t just lazy; it’s scared.

As Trump proved, winning nationally demands coalition-building that extends beyond his personal brand. For Republicans, survival now hinges on replicating this approach—even without Trump on the ballot.