House GOP Healthcare Bill Projects 11% Premium Reduction and $35 Billion in Deficit Savings

By Jim Thomas | Tuesday, 16 December 2025 11:00 PM EST

A new analysis from the Congressional Budget Office indicates that a House Republican healthcare package scheduled for a floor vote Wednesday would reduce premiums under the Affordable Care Act by 11% and cut federal deficits by more than $35 billion, providing momentum to GOP leaders as health coverage costs become a central issue ahead of the election year.

The estimate covers the Lower Health Care Premiums for All Americans Act, unveiled last week by Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and other House Republican leaders. According to the Congressional Budget Office and the Joint Committee on Taxation, the savings would accrue through 2035.

The analysis also found that the legislation would result in about 100,000 fewer people having health insurance over a decade. Republicans argue the proposal targets structural costs in the health system while expanding lower-cost coverage options outside the “Obamacare” exchanges.

The bill would increase transparency requirements for pharmacy benefit managers, a long-standing target of bipartisan criticism. It would also appropriate cost-sharing reduction payments—a move the Congressional Budget Office says accounts for much of the projected premium reductions.

The package further expands access to Association Health Plans, allowing self-employed workers and members of large organizations to pool together to buy insurance. Supporters claim these plans can provide significantly cheaper coverage than exchange-based policies.

The Congressional Budget Office did not independently score Association Health Plan premiums in detail, but previous analyses cited by supporters show sizable savings. A review of more than two dozen such plans previously found they were “offering generous benefits and premiums lower than can be found in the Obamacare marketplaces.”

Under Trump-era regulations, groups like the Southern Arizona Chamber of Commerce could offer coverage to small businesses across counties. That rule was later blocked after lawsuits from 11 states, forcing many of these plans out of the market. The current bill would codify those earlier rules into law.

Additional provisions include protections for small and midsized employers against catastrophic claims and rules enabling employers to offer defined contributions so workers can purchase their own health insurance—a policy first implemented during President Donald Trump’s first term.

The Congressional Budget Office findings closely mirror an earlier report from the Paragon Health Institute, which estimated roughly $30 billion in savings and a 12% reduction in premiums, driven largely by funding cost-sharing reduction payments.

The legislation could face internal resistance within the GOP conference. The House is not expected to vote on an amendment extending enhanced subsidies set to expire, drawing criticism from some moderates. Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., has warned that allowing those subsidies to lapse could raise premiums for constituents, creating a potential fault line as Republicans emphasize cost savings while Democrats focus on coverage levels.

Earlier, House GOP leaders refused to hold a vote on extending enhanced Affordable Care Act premium subsidies, with Johnson stating lawmakers will advance the party’s own healthcare bill instead, leaving expanded subsidies set to expire and prompting warnings of higher premiums.

Jim Thomas is a writer based in Indiana. He holds a bachelor’s degree in Political Science, a law degree from U.I.C. Law School, and has practiced law for more than 20 years.